Determined by the sequential addition of serum values obtained at normal t 1/2 intervals, the AFP t 1/2 improved in sensitivity but required up to seven serial values (35 days) to detect an abnormal t 1/2 in patients with 10% residual tumor. In the model, the AFP t 1/2 calculated from a single set of serum measurements obtained from the initial serum t 1/2 was a poor predictor of disease status in patients with up to 40% residual tumor volume. The clinical data set then was analyzed to measure the effect of different analytic methods on the predictive value of the AFP t 1/2. The model was used to test the effect of various analytic strategies on detecting the residual tumor. Statistical information on the AFP half-life (t 1/2) derived from a clinical data set of 24 patients with AFP-secreting clinical Stage A testicular cancer and pathologically defined nodal status was incorporated into a mathematic model of postorchiectomy marker values as a function of residual tumor volume and time. This article evaluated different analytic methods in an effort to identify the approach that provided the greatest sensitivity and specificity for occult residual disease. However, the optimal strategy for postorchiectomy marker analysis has not been studied. Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) serum values after orchiectomy for testicular cancer can be used to predict the residual disease status.
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